Tipping points in coupled human-environment systems

Madhur Anand

School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Canada

manand@uoguelph.ca

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Link to seminar: TBA

Humans and the environment form a single complex system where humans not only cause ecosys-tem impacts, but also react to them. Coupled human-environment system (CHES) mathematical models are essential to understand the impacts of social behaviour and interventions and their potential to avoid catastrophic environmental events. Sustainable trajectories on multi-decadal timescales can be explored with relatively simple models. These models demonstrate how social parameters, as well as the degree of human influence on environmental systems can profoundly affect the number and type of tipping points that may occur via bifurcations to alternative stable states. Additionally, the efficacy of early warning signals can be altered through this coupling, with potential for the monitoring of environmental systems through social data. Coupled study systems presented here include forests and land use, coral reefs and fishing, and invasive species models.

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