Models of adaptation to climate change for complex life cycles

Ophelie Ronce    
ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier - ophelie.ronce@univ-montp2.fr

(Seminar in English or French)

Populations confronted to a changing environment, as occurs under climate change, must adapt fast enough to persist. Many species confronted to climate change have complex life cycles, with individuals in different stages differing in their ecology, their sensitivity to a changing climate and their contribution to population growth. Building on theoretical tools from evolutionary demography, we used quantitative genetics models to predict the dynamics of adaptation in a stage-structured population confronted to climate change. We examined how the adaptive challenges associated with climate change may result in maladaptive shifts in life history, such as accelerated aging or modified trade-offs between fecundity and survival. Finally, I will illustrate how mechanistic models of tree phenology and distribution can be used to predict selection regimes under future climates and parameterize evolutionary models.

Recent publications:

Aguilée, R., Raoul, G., Rousset, F., Ronce, O. 2016. Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 113: E5741-E5748.

Duputié, A., Rutschmann, A., Ronce, O. , Chuine, I. 2015. Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change. Global Change Biology 21: 3062-3073.

Cotto, O., Ronce, O. 2014. Maladaptation as a source of senescence in habitats variable in space and time. Evolution, 68:2481-2493